Video over cell phones to attract 30 mln, generate $3 bln by 2009
IDC anticipates that by 2009, over 30 million US wireless subscribers will be consuming commercial video/TV content and services over their wireless devices. The market value will top $3 bln by 2009. Until mid-2006, mobile video and TV content is likely to be delivered solely over existing 2.5G and 3G carrier unicast cellular networks. |
13% of mobile phones sold in 2005 to be 3G
3G service launches and the subsequent increase in 3G handset development saw explosive year-on-year growth of almost 850% in Q4 2004, driving the proportion of WCDMA handsets to 6% in 2004 compared to 1% in 2003. IDC forecasts WCDMA handsets to increase to around 13% of total mobile phone shipments in 2005, particularly in light of service launches from T-Mobile and O2 in Q1 2005 and new 3G handsets such as Nokia 6680 and Sony Ericsson K600i.
13% of all phones sold in Western Europe in 2005 to support WCDMA
IDC forecasts smartphone growth approaching 70% in 2005 in Western European market, increasing smartphones' total proportion of the market beyond 6%. 3G service launches by Vodafone and Orange and the subsequent increase in 3G handset development saw explosive YTY growth of almost 850% in Q4 2004, driving the proportion of WCDMA handsets to 6% in 2004 compared to 1% in 2003. IDC forecasts WCDMA handsets to increase to around 13% of total mobile phone shipments in 2005, particularly in light of service launches from T-Mobile and O2 in Q1 2005 and new 3G handsets such as the 6680 from Nokia and Sony Ericsson K600i. However, GPRS is forecast to remain the dominant standard for the total mobile phone market, in contrast to GSM, which is expected to continue its decline in competition with a growing selection of low-cost GPRS-based, and increasingly EDGE-based, handsets. |
70 mln 3G users by year-end 2005
Nokia forecasts that more than 70 mln people will own a 3G mobile phone by the end of 2005. It also forecasts that the number of mobile users in the world will pass 2 bln by the end of 2005 as usage mushrooms across Africa and other developing economies. |
More than 17 mln 3G users in Asia by year-end 2005
Demand for 3G mobile phone services in Asia outside of Japan will grow by half this year to more than 17 mln users, driven by the established South Korean market, according to IDC. The wider availability of 3G phones that allow high-speed Internet access and video-conferencing will support the increase in subscribers as operators launch new services and discounts. IDC estimates Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) mobile revenues will rise by an average 16% in 2005 to $81.2 bln, driven by India, South Korea and the Philippines. Mobile revenues are expected to rise 64% in India, 27% in South Korea and 25% in the Philippines. |
US 2.5/3G mobile data market to generate $1.5 bln in 2006
Over the past two and half years, the 2.5/3G mobile data services market in the US has grown from nothing to a market worth an estimated $1.5 bln by the end of 2006, according to Forrester Research. |
113 3G networks deployed globally
Andrew Seybold is quoted in New York Times estimating there are 113 3G deployments globally today. In the US just 70,000 of Verizon's 42 million subscribers have signed up for its high-speed data service. |
70% of corporate buyers unaware of 3G advantages
IDC's 2004 mobile devices end-user survey demonstrates that handhelds still dominate company mobility strategies, with over 50% of respondents indicating the PDA as the preferred mobile device as opposed to a voice-centric smart phone or a PDA with telephony capability. Only 11% of respondents indicated their company had a WLAN, suggesting few businesses can justify the cost of implementing a new wireless network. This also indicates that security fears and the vast array of 802.11x standards remain inhibitors to the establishment of a complete mobility strategy. IDC's survey also demonstrated low levels of awareness regarding the services offered by 3G, with over 70% indicating little knowledge of its advantages. |
55% of large US businesses will deploy 3G by 2006
The user experience for mobile workers improves considerably as wireless wide-area data speeds exceed 144 Kbps, allowing greater access to mission-critical applications. This has positive implications on mobile application infrastructure requirements, ease of deployment, and total solution costs. |
45 mln 3G subscribers in 2004, 85 mln by 2005
Global 3G subscribers will grow from an estimated 45 mln at the end of 2004 to 85 mln in 2005, according to Wireless World Forum. Although 2004 has been a year of false 3G expectations outside of Japan and Korea, 2005 could potentially be a good year for 3G in the rest of the world. This, however, will not be the case if operators in Europe and America fail to adopt the 3G policies of seamless migration successfully implemented in both Korea and Japan. Using seamless migration, Japanese operators have managed to subscribe 1 in every 6 of the population, compared to 1.3% in Europe. European uptake has been led by Hutchison 3G whose strategies have failed to vindicate the business model associated with 3G. |
49% of European mobile users not interested in 3G
A report has concluded that a full 49% of mobile phone users in Great Britain, France, Germany, Spain, Italy and Belgium are not interested in 3G services. The Harris Interactive survey - the results of which were published in the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday - noted that this figure was highest in the UK, where although mobile operator 3 has been running a 3G service for months, 60% of punters are indifferent.
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8 mln 3G users in Europe by 2005
If Western Europe replicates the Japanese adoption timeline, there will be more than 8 mln W-CDMA users in the region by mid-2005 (2.4% of 340 mln). There's no doubt the two markets are very different; the main difference is the attitude of consumers toward mobile data. However, there are strong reasons to believe the pace of European 3G adoption will equal or exceed Japan's.
First, most carriers are conducting pre-commercial trials and will launch commercial services in 2004. Carrier pressure on vendors and greater economies of scale will mean better and cheaper equipment, while the lessons of DoCoMo and 3 should help other providers avoid early technical problems.
In addition, there is the lack of competing technologies. Where CDMA and 1X upgrades will compete with W-CDMA in Japan, there is no comparable cellular broadband technology being deployed in Western Europe. Interim or parallel technologies such as EDGE and Wi-Fi have similar characteristics but cannot match the attributes and benefits of W-CDMA |
3G WhitePapers / Reports
3g Whitepapers in Acrobat (pdf)
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